Hurricane Irma’s impact seen in closings; bright spot as luxury condo market gains

Douglas Elliman today releases the third quarter 2017 South Florida Market Reports including Miami-Dade, Miami Beach, Sunny Isles, Ft. Lauderdale, Boca Raton, Jupiter, Wellington and Palm Beach. Authored by Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel Inc., the Douglas Elliman report reveals that a small part of the closing volume was delayed in many markets due to the disruption from Hurricane Irma. Despite the disturbance, the luxury condo market showed rising prices and inventory on the decline.

These South Florida market reports are part of the Elliman Report series that began 23 years ago. The third quarter report speaks to the resilience of South Florida, its continued growth and Miami’s increasing appeal as a global elite city. The report analyzes the key data and trends, helping clients to make informed decisions.

“The report reveals a mixed, but generally positive, theme for the South Florida market as we head toward the end of the year,” said Jay Phillip Parker, CEO of Douglas Elliman Florida. “While Hurricane Irma may have caused a temporary disruption, it’s definitely back to business as normal, and we anticipate fourth quarter sales to benefit from the spillover. Overall, the condo market in Miami Beach fared well, with standout markets including Bal Harbour, the Bay Harbor Islands, Surfside, North Beach and North Bay Village. Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach Gardens and Boca Raton continue to be active and represent some of the better performing areas in South Florida.”

“Most of the condo markets we analyzed across South Florida were the standouts, with modest price growth and inventory drifting lower,” added Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel Inc.

“The South Florida real estate market owes its resiliency to the lifestyle, proximity to Latin America, diversity, and entrepreneurial spirit. Sophisticated buyers continue to regard it as a solid investment to sell in the future, an investment diversification, and a safe haven for funds. We anticipate a robust end to 2017 and a strong pick up in 2018 since development this cycle has been pared to demand,” added Parker.

Highlights of the Douglas Elliman Q3 South Florida Market Reports include:

MIAMI BEACH/BARRIER ISLANDS HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

- Housing price trends showed mixed results for the overall market

- After prior 2 quarters of sales increases, the decline was due to disruption in closings in aftermath of Hurricane Irma

- Listing inventory edged nominally higher

- Negotiability remained stable as marketing time expanded

- 31% conventional financing of purchases was highest tracked in more than four years

- A nominal 3.5% of all sales were distressed

- Bal Harbor, Bay Harbor Islands, Surfside, North Beach and North Bay Village condos saw gains in sales/price trends

- Luxury condo market, starting at nearly $1.6M, showed price gains and sliding inventory

Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)

OVERALL MARKET

- Median sales price rose 4.2% to $400,000- Average sales price was unchanged at $868,404
- Number of sales declined 11.8% to 690- Days on market was 139, up from 120- Listing discount was 8.9%, unchanged
- Listing inventory increased 1.4% to 5,895

LUXURY CONDO

- Median sales price increased 15.5% to $2,425,000

- Days on market was 196, up from 126

- Listing discount was 8.8%, down from 8.9%

- Listing inventory fell 8.5% to 1,130 units

- Entry threshold began at $1,590,000

LUXURY SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price shifted down 39.3% to $5,100,000

- Days on market was 265, up from 141

- Listing discount was 12.7%, down from 12.9%

- Listing inventory rose 33.9% to 217 units

- Entry threshold began at $4,350,000

MIAMI COASTAL MAINLAND HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

- Sales decline due to disruption in closings in aftermath of Hurricane Irma

- Price trend indicators moved higher as sales declined

- Listing inventory and negotiability expanded as marketing time declined

- Distressed sales continued to decline and remain a nominal part of market activity

- Both condo and single family price trends increased as sales declined

Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)

OVERALL MARKET

- Median sales price increased 5.4% to $300,500

- Average sales price rose 4.2% to $408,405
- Number of sales fell 11.8% to 3,482

- Days on market was 76 down from 103

- Listing discount was 5.4%, up from 5.2%
- Listing inventory rose 12.4% to 12,194 units

LUXURY CONDO

- Median sales price fell 5.4% to $691,500

- Days on market was 176 days, down from 187

- Listing discount was 7.5%, down from 7.9%

- Listing inventory rose 25.6% to 3,115

- Entry threshold began at $472,000

LUXURY SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price jumped 13.6% to $1,325,000

- Days on market was 174 days up from 213

- Listing discount was 7.7%, up from 7.6%

- Listing inventory declined 20.9% to 987 units

- Entry threshold began at $877,000

FORT LAUDERDALE HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

- Condo and single family price trend indicators moved higher

- After prior 2 quarters of sales increases, the decline was due to disruption in closings in aftermath of Hurricane Irma

- Luxury housing price trends showed stability

- The overall market continues to be one of the better performing areas of South Florida

Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)

LUXURY CONDO

- Median sales price was unchanged at $1,100,000

- Days on market was 46, up from 31
- Listing discount was 6.5%, up from 6.3%

- Listing inventory increased 8.7% to 350

- Entry threshold began at $765,000

LUXURY SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price slipped 2.4% to $2,000,000

- Days on market was 205, down from 273
- Listing discount was 9.8%, down from 12.9%

- Listing inventory increased 0.6% to 347 units

- Entry threshold began at $1,200,000

BOCA RATON HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

- After prior 4 quarters of overall sales increases, the decline was due to disruption in closings in aftermath of Hurricane Irma

- Median sales price for both property types moved higher as marketing time expanded

- Luxury condo prices moved higher as inventory declined while luxury single family prices declined and inventory expanded

- The overall market continues to be one of the better performing areas of South Florida

Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)

LUXURY CONDO

- Median sales price rose 12.5% to $900,000

- Days on market was 139 days, up from 98 days

- Listing discount was 10.7%, up from 8.9%

- Listing inventory fell 9.6% to 292

- Entry threshold began at $550,000

LUXURY SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price declined 11% to $1,380,000

- Days on market was 164 days, up from 153
- Listing discount was 7.8%, down from 11.3%

- Listing inventory rose 7.1% to 470

- Entry threshold began at $935,000

DELRAY BEACH HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

- Condo median sales price showed gains while single family median sales price reflected stability

- After prior 2 quarters of overall sales increases, the decline was due to disruption in closings in aftermath of Hurricane Irma

- Market east of Federal Highway showed a shift in the mix to smaller but more sales

Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)

LUXURY SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price rose 15.6% to $1,775,000

- Days on market was 124, up from 103
- Listing discount was 18%, up from 8.8%

- Entry threshold began at $1,188,000

LUXURY CONDO

- Median sales price slipped 4.5% to $563,500

- Days on market was 123, up from 118
- Listing discount was 6%, up from 4.1%

- Entry threshold began at $355,000

WELLINGTON HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

- Most submarkets reflected a sharp drop in average sales size which skewed price trends lower

- Overall markets for condo and single family showed declines in listing inventory

- Marketing times for the overall condo and single family markets declined

Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)

LUXURY SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price declined 38% to $829,000

- Average sales square footage dropped 26.4% to 3,940

- Days on market was 110, down from 295
- Listing discount was 8.2%, down from 10.1%

- Listing inventory rose 29.7% to 275

- Entry threshold began at $640,000

LUXURY CONDO

- Median sales price jumped 65.6% to $525,000

- Days on market was 211, up from 128
- Listing discount was 7.6%, up from 3.4%

- Listing inventory declined 45.5% to 30

- Entry threshold began at $400,000

PALM BEACH HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

- More activity in the lower half of the market as shift in mix pulled overall pricing lower

- Condo sales jumped as single family sales fell reflecting the shift in market focus to lower half of market

- Condos, single family and luxury markets saw limited changes in listing inventory

Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)

LUXURY CONDO AND SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price declined 21.2% to $7,700,000

- Days on market was 252, down from 254
- Listing discount was 13.4%, down from 15.2%

- Listing inventory rose 4.4% to 95

- Entry threshold began at $4,865,000

JUPITER / PALM BEACH GARDENS HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

- Jupiter: Housing price trends for the condo and single family markets moved higher as luxury showed softer conditions

- Jupiter: After stable sales for 3 quarters, the decline in activity is partially attributable to Hurricane Irma’s disruption

- Palm Beach Gardens: The market remained one of the strongest South Florida markets analyzed

- Palm Beach Gardens: Housing price rose market wide as sales slipped due to Hurricane Irma's disruption

Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago period)

JUPITER SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price increased 10.4% to $510,000

- Days on market was 68, up from 64
- Listing discount was 6.8%, up from 5.7%

- Listing inventory declined 12.9% to 392

JUPITER CONDO

- Median sales price increased 3.6% to $285,000

- Days on market was 59, up from 53
- Listing discount was 5.2%, up from 4.4%

- Listing inventory surged 71.3% to 257

PALM BEACH GARDENS SINGLE FAMILY

- Median sales price increased 11.4% to $479,000

- Days on market was 77, down from 86
- Listing discount was 6.7%, up from 6.3%

PALM BEACH GARDENS CONDO

- Median sales price rose 7.9% to $232,000

- Days on market was 55, down from 56
- Listing discount was 3.8%, down from 4.3%

About Douglas Elliman Real Estate

Established in 1911, Douglas Elliman Real Estate is the largest brokerage in the New York Metropolitan area and the fourth largest residential real estate company nationwide. With more than 7,000 agents, the company operates approximately 110 offices in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, New Jersey, Long Island, the Hamptons & North Fork, Westchester, Greenwich, South Florida, Colorado and California. Moreover, Douglas Elliman has a strategic global alliance with London-based Knight Frank Residential for business in the worldwide luxury markets spanning 60 countries and six continents. The company also controls a portfolio of real estate services including Douglas Elliman Development Marketing; Manhattan’s largest residential property manager, Douglas Elliman Property Management with over 250 buildings; and DE Commercial. For more information on Douglas Elliman as well as expert commentary on emerging trends in the real estate industry, please visit elliman.com.