While the ADP report for May was better than expected, jobless claims saw their largest one-week increase in more than a month. While economists were expecting claims to rise slightly from 235K up to 238K, the actual increase was 10K more at 248K. While this week's level marks a five-week high, it is still the 117th straight week of sub-300K claims. Also, anytime claims are below 250K, it is hard to get too concerned even if the print is higher than expected.
With this week's increase, the four-week moving average increased from its cycle low of 235.5K last week to 238K. Last week, we said that it would take a much larger than expected reading this week in order to not make another cycle low, and unfortunately, that's just what we got this week.
